您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-15 00:31:42 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
购买eos的平台-买eos用什么平台2025-05-15 00:36
保险的投保人可以自己购买吗?2025-05-15 00:31
新加坡八月穿什么-新加坡八月穿什么衣服2025-05-15 00:19
10月31日民生加银龙头优选股票A净值下跌0.85%,近1个月累计下跌5.84%2025-05-15 00:15
3080多少少算力-3080有多少算力2025-05-15 00:10
10月31日东方红优势精选混合净值下跌1.02%,今年来累计下跌9.56%2025-05-14 23:57
请问苏宁任性付支持大学生使用么?我想申请苏宁任性付。2025-05-14 23:43
黄金一斤多少克-黄金一斤多少克才叫一斤呢2025-05-14 22:30
个人所得税补报可以找税务专管吗2025-05-14 22:10
10月31日诺德新盛灵活配置混合A净值下跌0.45%,近1个月累计上涨1.36%2025-05-14 22:05
比特币ETF的批准会引发模因币的牛市吗?2025-05-15 00:21
鲍威尔发布会全文:等等看,不会先发制人降息2025-05-15 00:20
以太坊在线钱包2025-05-15 00:16
云南昆明是什么气候-云南昆明是什么气候类型2025-05-15 00:10
FIL全球热钱包 FIL热钱包全球版本v6.1.82025-05-14 22:53
工商年报特种设备是指的什么2025-05-14 22:49
宜人贷极速贷款非要信用卡才能申请吗,怎么能申请宜人贷的极速模式?2025-05-14 22:32
数字商品新视角,ETH的价值会回升吗?2025-05-14 22:24
火币杠杆是多少2025-05-14 22:22
10月31日恒越成长精选混合C净值增长0.63%,近3个月累计上涨12.73%2025-05-14 21:54